Speculation And The Housing Market In 2005 By John Kaighn At Isnare.com Ezine Articles

When Greenspan finishes his term as Fed chief, I am one person who surely will miss his succinct use of language to make a point. The use of the term “irrational exuberance” to explain the dotcom bubble, in hindsight, was right on the money. In discussing the current housing boom, he has used the word “froth” to discuss the “relatively exotic mortgages which are of particular concern”. While there are no predictions of a dotcom era style bust in real estate, the fact that 20% of new mortgages in 2005 are “interest-only”, up from 5% in 2003 is the froth of which Greenspan speaks. Consider a 10% drop in home prices for a moment. With a 10% down payment and an “interest-only” ARM, all equity in the home evaporates, and monthly payments eventually will rise with no principal reduction, because interest rates are rising. Does this sound just a bit frothy or even speculative?

The point is to always remember the cyclical nature of the economy, the stock market, the housing market and life in general. In the economic cycle, we are in the middle of the expansion phase, and within this phase, there are ups and downs. The market will rise and fall during this part of the cycle, but the trajectory should be positive if you think long-term. Housing has been in a boom, since the dotcom bust and could very well be near the top. If you need a house, because it will be your home, shop wisely. If you are looking at real estate as an investment at this juncture, perhaps you could wind up in a situation like the above mentioned scenario.

Here are some facts to consider if you are concerned about the housing market. According to Business Week, “today’s housing prices are predicated on an impossible combination: the strong growth in income and asset values of a strong economy, plus the ultra low rates of a weak economy. Either the economy’s long-term prospects will get worse, or rates will rise. In either scenario, housing will weaken.” We’re already seeing interest rates rise, so “perhaps housing is entering a more sober period when it won’t be the prime generator of growth.” Overall, the feeling is the housing sector will cool off, and areas with more speculative markets will see more depreciation in home values than those which had a more modest increase over the last three years. This has happened before, and it will happen again. This is no new paradigm, it is just “the cycle”.

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