The 500-HR Club and the MLB Hall of Fame

There’s a very famous limited-edition 1988 lithograph by renowned sports artist Ron Lewis that features eleven then-living members of the elite 500 Home Run Club. The litho, which is aptly entitled “500 Home Run Hitters Club,” was produced in conjunction with an Atlantic city show in 1988 at which these baseball greats gathered. A full sized (22.5 x 37 inches) litho signed by all eleven members can sell anywhere from $1,200 to $2,000 through memorabilia auction houses or on eBay. Only 1000 copies were produced.

It should be noted that all eleven members — Ted Williams, Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, and Willie McCovey — are also members of the MLB Hall-of-Fame. Three of them — Williams, Mantle, and Mathews — are now deceased.

In 1988 there were only fourteen members of this elite slugger’s club, including deceased Hall-of-Famers Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, and Mel Ott. Twenty years later in 2008, there are twenty-three members. And, it’s entirely possible that two more (Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado) will join the club in 2009.

Here is my question: Considering all the controversy regarding the so-called “steroid era,” does hitting 500 home runs automatically guarantee someone a HOF plaque in Cooperstown as it once did?

No one can deny that hitting 500 or more homers is an amazing feat. Think about it. Of all the men who have played big league baseball over the years, only twenty-three have done it. However, I believe the sports writers who select the Hall-of-Fame inductees each year are now looking beyond the home run numbers. Before casting their votes, they’ll consider other offensive stats — such as lifetime batting average, number of career hits, and RBI. They may also take the player’s defensive skills into consideration. And, something that will be looked at very closely is whether or not that player has ever been linked to steroids.

Case in point: Mark McGwire was passed over in his first year of eligibility despite his 583 career home runs. The writers will tell you that his overall numbers were lacking. So, being denied entry into the HOF had nothing to do with his connection to steroids and HGH? Right.

In two years, Rafael Palmeiro will be eligible. I believe that he, too, will be passed over despite having 3020 hits to go along with 569 career homers — which makes him a member of an even more elite group of players who have 3000 hits and 500 home runs. And it’s all because he tested positive for steroids and left the game in disgrace.

Palmeiro or McGwire may never be inducted in the HOF. Or, the writers may simply make them sweat it out for a few years and then vote them in. Only time will tell.

And then there’s the “Home Run King,” Barry Bonds. With all of his accomplishments, including 762 career homers and the single-season record of 73, one might think that he’d be a slam-dunk for the HOF. After all, most people believe he was a Hall-of-Famer long before the steroid issue reared its ugly head. But, I’m not so sure it’s going to be that easy for him. A lot could happen between now and 2012, which is when he’ll be eligible for HOF induction. You see, there’s this little trial that begins on March 2, 2009. A lot could be revealed during those proceedings. If Bonds ends up in prison, his HOF induction may be delayed for several years. Will he eventually go in? I believe he will.

With regard to HOF induction, let’s consider the chances of other players who have joined the 500 and 600 Home Run Clubs in recent years:

Ken Griffey, Jr. (611) - Fifth on the all-time list and never linked to steroids. Slam-dunk.

Sammy Sosa (609) - Sixth on the all-time list and never tested positive for steroids. (I
believe that 600 or better should automatically qualify a player for the HOF.)

Alex Rodriguez (553) - Will more than likely pass them all. Is there any doubt in anybody’s mind that he’s a Hall-of-Famer?

Jim Thome (540) - Now fourteenth on the list and may eventually end up in the top ten. He’s definitely going in.

Manny Ramirez (527) - Will probably sign a huge contract with either the Yankees or Dodgers and play for three or four more years. May end up joining the “600 Home Run Club”. Another slam-dunk.

Frank Thomas (521) - Currently has a lifetime batting average of .301, but may be nearing the end of his career. The overall numbers warrant his induction.

Although Gary Sheffield (499) will undoubtedly exceed 500 homers if he plays in 2009, I’m not sure if he’ll ever go into the HOF because of his Barry Bonds and Balco connections. There could be other factors as well.

After Sheffield and Delgado (469), it may be a several years before we see another player hit his 500th home run. Of those who have a shot at it, Albert Pujols may be the only one to get there. Even if he doesn’t reach that number, Pujols will be a Hall-of-Famer.