The 2009 San Diego Padres (One Man's Opinion)

It’s no secret that 2008 has been a dismal season for the Padres. With only four games remaining at this writing, there’s still a chance they’ll end the season with a hundred losses. Only the Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals have worse records.

So, it’s time to take a look at what the Pads need to do in 2009. Although they haven’t publicly announced their plans for next season, we got a little bit of a clue this week following the surprising and abrupt resignation of hitting coach Wally Joyner—who claims it was due to philosophical differences with the front office. Yesterday, while discussing Joyner’s departure and the Padres in general, President and CEO Sandy Alderson indicated that there could be other managerial and coaching staff changes forthcoming. What I gleaned from his comments is that the club has chosen to go in a different direction.

Notwithstanding my opinions regarding the Padre ownership and management, my comments here will be limited to the player personnel.

Like all Padre fans, I have my opinions as to who should stay and who should go. While it’s being reported that the Padres intend to substantially reduce their payroll in 2009, the club has neither confirmed nor denied it. If it turns out to be true, that means they’re going with a youth movement and will not spend money on big-name free agents or trade for high-priced talent. If that happens, the 2009 Padres will resemble a Triple-A team—which, when I think about it, is kinda what they looked like this season. Anyway, my opinions are based on the premise that they will not significantly reduce the payroll and will endeavor to put a competitive team on the field next season.

I’ll start off with the offense.

All one has to do is look at the stats (as of 9/24/08) to see why the Padres have the third worst record in the majors. They’re last in runs scored (623) and on base percentage (.318), second to last in slugging (.391) and batting average (.251 – actually, they’re tied with Washington and Arizona for that dubious distinction – only Cincinnati is worse with .247), and they rank eleventh of sixteen NL teams in home runs.

The only proven major leaguers on the roster are Adrian Gonzalez (.281, 35 HRs, 117 RBI) and Brian Giles (.306, 11 HRs, 60 RBI). While it’s safe to assume that Gonzalez will return next year, it’s beginning to look doubtful that Giles’ option year will be picked up. However, if the Padres want to be competitive, they need his leadership. If they let him go, it’ll cost them $3 million. For $6 million more, they can retain his services. The club will certainly save money if they choose to go with Jody Gerut (.296, 14 HRs, 43 RBI), Scott Hairston (.248, 17 HRs, 31 BI), and rookies Chase Headley (.274, 9 HRs, 37 RBI) and William Venable (.277, 2 HRs, 8 RBI) as their ’09 outfielders. However, how they’ll perform over a full season is anybody’s guess.

Furthermore, while the Padres would like to retain Gerut, he's eligible for salary arbitration, which is a procedure in which the club has historically been loath to participate. If they can’t sign him on their terms, he may not be offered arbitration, and, therefore, could become a free agent.

Another factor to consider for the outfield is defense. While the Padres rank third (tied with St. Louis) in the NL, left fielder Chase Headley, a natural third baseman who’s been playing out of position since joining the club, has been somewhat shaky in the field. There is speculation that the Padres would like to move him to third base—which would mean that Kevin Kouzmanoff would be used as trade bait.

Second-year player Kouzmanoff (.265, 22 HRs, 82 RBI) has done a terrific job at third base and has shown improvement at the plate. And although he strikes out too much, Headley actually has a higher strikeout percentage. Third base is going to be a tough decision for the Padres. While it’s hard to trade away a player who might soon hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs or more, the popular Kouz could possibly bring the club a “number three” starting pitcher or a power-hitting outfielder via a trade. Personally, while I’d like to see Kouz stay, I really don’t want to see Headley back in left field next year. But I don’t want him traded away, either.

On to the infield. I’ve already talked about third base, so we’ll start with the shortstop position. Khalil Greene IS the Padres’ shortstop. Okay, he had a tough year at the plate. And, as everyone knows, his poor performance was exacerbated by an idiotic, self-inflicted injury. Still, I believe that Greene will bounce back next year and be the player the club and the fans want him to be. Enough said.

Although Luis Rodriguez has done a remarkable job filling in for Greene at short and could possibly be their second baseman next year, I think it behooves the club to fill that position with an established big leaguer who can provide stellar defense, speed, and a little power. The only free agent who fits that bill is Orlando Hudson, who made over $6 million this season with Arizona. Hudson, who’ll be 31 next year, would give the Padres veteran leadership along with everything else they want in a second baseman. However, his price may be too high for the budget-conscious Padres.

Edgar Gonzalez did a commendable job filling in at second base this season and I don’t think there’s any doubt that the personable older brother of Adrian can hit. However, the Padres see him as a reserve player. I believe the same applies to Luis Rodriguez.

Speaking of Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres' only All-Star will be back at first base next year. However, what I’d like to see is a bonafide power bat hitting behind him. If the Padres can find a guy like that, Adrian’s numbers might be even better next season. There are several power-hitting outfielders available in the 2009 free agent pool. Heading that list are Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Jason Bay, Adam Dunn, and Vladimir Guerrero. Of course, Ramirez will more than likely end up in New York or stay in L.A. I’d be very happy with either Burrell, Bay, or Guerrero roaming the outfield at Petco Park next year and hitting behind Adrian.

If the Pads can sign a power hitting outfielder to play either right or left, I’d start Gerut (if he’s retained) in center. If he doesn’t return, Venable and Hairston might platoon in that position. Headley would be moved to third and Kouz would be traded for pitching.

Now, what about catcher? Well, call me crazy, but I like Nick Hundley and would like to see the Pads stick with him. He’ll need a solid back-up, of course, and my choice there is Brad Ausmus.

Let’s move on to the pitching staff. After leading the majors in team ERA in 2007, the 2008 version of the Padres’ staff was a complete disaster. And I’m being nice about it. I don’t care to get into league ranking and all that stuff (again being nice). Basically, here’s the deal: the Padres have two solid starters—Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Cha Seung Baek has been good on the road but horrible overall at home. He may win a starting job in spring training. However, I’d like to see him in the bullpen as a middle reliever and spot starter. While posting a 2-1 record with a 2.86 ERA, Josh Geer has shown promise in his four starts. He’ll be given a chance to compete for a starting job in the spring. Outside of that? Nada, my friends. Wade LeBlanc may develop into a big league pitcher down the road. But, for now, he belongs in Triple-A. And, nothing personal, but I would not re-sign Shawn Estes. Trust me on this one…the Padres will be looking for solid starting pitching over the winter.

That brings me to the bullpen. Yikes! On paper, the Pads had a good bullpen going into the 2008 campaign. It included several pitchers who had performed well in the past. Because of time and space, I won’t list the failures. Instead, I’ll simply mention those whom I think should be members of the 2009 Padres bullpen.

First and foremost, the services of all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman should be retained. To not re-sign Trevor would create a PR nightmare for the Padres. Along with Tony Gwynn and Randy Jones, he’s one of the most respected and revered players to ever wear a Padre uniform. And he still has some bullets left in that arm. I’d give him two more years, although it wouldn’t be at the same salary level as 2008.

Other than Hoffman, the only other relievers I’d bring back are set-up man Heath Bell, Justin Hampson (a good leftie) and Mike Adams—who turned out to be a “diamond in the rough” this year. If Clay Hensley isn’t traded or released in the off-season, I’d also give him a chance to win a job in spring training. Hensley, who was very effective as a reliever in 2006, came off shoulder surgery this year and may not have been performing at a hundred percent. Even if Hensley wins a job and Cha Seung Baek is moved to the pen, the Padres will still need a veteran right-hander and a veteran left-hander to round out their relief corp.

If the Padres want to compete next season, they’ll also need a much improved bench. They have a good start with Edgar Gonzalez and Luis Rodriguez. Of all the veteran free agents available this winter, I’m sure the Padres can find a couple of guys who can still be productive off the bench.

To sum it up, the 2009 Padres will need to hit better, pitch better, run the bases better, steal more bases, score more runs, strikeout less, and become more adept at basic baseball fundamentals, such as bunting and advancing runners, if they want to be competitive.

One thing for sure: no matter what the Padres decide to do, it figures to be an interesting winter.