Positioning for the Recovery

The economy will recover and business will be good again. No one can predict when that will occur or how bad things will get in the meantime, but we can be assured that things will recover. We can also assume that things will not be the same after the recovery as they were prior to the economic crisis that we now face.

Wise leaders will take this time to reflect on their current strategies and realize that now is the time to redo or revise those strategies in light of changes that will happen going forward. I believe that there are a few new dynamics that need to be taken into account in most businesses as they rethink strategies.

First, the lessons from the near collapse of our financial system will force everyone to take a different look at debt and credit as a way to finance future purchases. Businesses will need to pay greater attention to the balance sheet and investments of capital. Leaders are going to be held more accountable for return on assets, including the human assets, under their responsibility. Those businesses which can squeeze greater efficiency and productivity out of existing assets will have a leg up during and after the recovery.

The current economic situation has forced most businesses to take a hard look at spending in all areas. It is unbelievable that it takes something like imminent bankruptcy for the Big Three auto makers to question and eliminate such things as corporate jets and large endorsement contracts for celebrities like Tiger Woods. Most of the companies I deal with don’t fall into this extreme, but I ‘m sure that every business has looked at spending they once took for granted and now question it.

Secondly, consumers are going to be much more value conscious. The early data from the Christmas shopping season suggests that there is a definite change in buying habits of the American public. The low cost retailers are doing better than those perceived as upscale. Strategies that depend on premium pricing based on image and luxury are likely to need significant change to reflect the new reality of the marketplace. In the book, Brand Bubble, John Gerzema and Ed Lebar contend that the next big economic bubble to burst is the value associated with brands. They estimate that more than $4 trillion dollars of market capitalization is represented by intangible assets associated with brand.

The loss of value in 401K’s and IRA’s combined with higher levels of unemployment likely is going to create some changes in the available labor pool. A few years ago, a significant shortage of skilled workers was predicted because of the retirement of the baby boomers and slow population growth. Unless something dramatic happens in the next couple of years to restore those losses in retirement accounts, more people will be working longer. The challenge will be to retrain people displaced by the economic downturn. This also has an impact on health care costs as the work force ages. The human resource strategies that support business strategies need to be reexamined.

Finally, the level of trust in corporate executives is at an all time low. One survey published in a Harvard Business Review article said that 80% of Americans don’t trust corporate executives and what’s worse is that roughly half of managers surveyed don't trust executives in their own company. In order to thrive after the recovery, senior leaders need to regain the trust of people in their organizations and in the communities in which they are located. Those companies that responded in a compassionate manner to employees and communities during the downturn will have created emotional capital with key stakeholders as the business recovers.