Lottery Predictions - Exposing the Truth

Lottery predictions; Bah, humbug. That's what some people say. Others are convinced that using lottery number analysis to make lottery predictions is perfectly valid. It is a difficult matter for most lottery players to sort out. Who should you believe? Who's right? Most players are simply left sitting on the fence without any clear path to follow. Perhaps this article will shed some light on the subject and give you a clearer picture of what is really going on.

The Argument Against Making Lottery Predictions

Let's first put forth the argument typically espoused by the lottery prediction skeptics. Their argument against goes something like this: Lottery predictions are a waste of time. After all, it's a random game of chance. Each drawing is a brand new drawing without any memory. Any lottery number patterns or trends are a mirage. Everyone knows that each lottery number is equally likely to hit and, ultimately, all of the numbers will hit the same number of times.

Logic and Reason for the Defense

At first, it sounds like the plaintiffs arguments are solid and based on a sound mathematical foundation. However, what you are about to discover is that the mathematics used is misunderstood and misapplied. I believe Alexander Pope said it best in An Essay on Criticism in 1709: "A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again." In other words, a little knowledge isn't worth much coming from a person who has some.

First, let's discuss the misunderstanding. In the mathematical field of probability, there is a theorem called the Law of Large Numbers. It simply states that, as the number of samples or trials increase, the results will approach the expected mean or average value. For the lottery, this means that eventually all lottery numbers will hit the same number of times. By the way, I totally agree.

The first misunderstanding comes from the words, 'as the number of samples or trials increase'. Increase to what? Is 50 drawings enough? 100? 1,000? 50,000? The name itself, 'Law of Large Numbers' should give you a clue. The second misunderstanding is what is the 'average value'? If we are going to 'approach the expected mean', how close do we have to get before we are satisfied?

Second, it is the misunderstanding of this theorem that results in its misapplication. I'll show you what I mean by asking the questions that the skeptics forget to ask. How many drawings will it take before the results will approach the expected mean? What is the expected mean?

In an experiment often used to demonstrate the application of Law of Large Numbers, a two sided coin is flipped and the results, either Heads or Tails, are recorded. The purpose of the experiment is to prove that in a fair game, the number of Heads and Tails, for all intents and purposes, will be equal. It typically requires a few thousand flips before the number of Heads and Tails are within a fraction of 1% of each other.

Lottery Statistics

With regards to the lottery, the skeptic proceeds to apply this theorem but never specifies what the expected value should be nor the number of drawings required. The effect of answering these questions is very telling. To prove the point, let's look at some real numbers. For the purposes of this discussion, I'll use the TX654 lottery.

In the last 336 drawings,(3 years and 3 months) 2016 numbers have been drawn (6x336). Since there are 54 lottery numbers in the hopper, each number should be drawn about 37 times. This is the expected value. Here is the point where the skeptic gets a migraine. After 336 drawings, the results are nowhere near the expected value of 37, let alone within a fraction of 1%. Some numbers are more than 40% higher than the average and other numbers are more than 35% below the average. What does this mean? It means that if we intend to apply the Law of Large Numbers to the lottery, we will have to have many more drawings; a lot more!!!

In the coin flip experiment, there are only two possible outcomes; Heads or Tails. In Lotto Texas, there are 25,827,165 possible outcomes! If it takes a couple of thousand trials in the coin flip experiment for the results to approach the expected value, how many drawings do you think it will take before lottery numbers approach their expected value? Hmmmm?

Lottery Number Patterns

This is where the argument against lottery number predictions falls apart. For example, if it takes 25,827,165 drawings before the expected values of all 54 lottery numbers are within a fraction of 1% of each other, it will take 248,338 years of lottery drawings to reach that point! Amazing! We're talking geological time frames here. Are you going to live that long?

The application of the Law of Large Numbers is meant for the long term. Trying to apply it to a short term problem (our life time) proves nothing. Looking at the TX654 lottery statistics above shows that. It also shows that lottery number patterns exist. In fact, in our lifetime, they exist for all lotteries.

Mathematically speaking, this shouldn't surprise anyone. For any random process in the short term, the outcomes can vary considerably from the expected value as shown in this Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

So it's not surprising that all lotteries are performing exactly as the Law of Large Numbers predicts they should. Some lottery numbers hit 2 to 3 times more often than others do in our life time; in the short run. In the long run, all numbers will approach their expected mean. Where the skeptic goes wrong is trying to apply a theorem intended for long term analysis to a short term problem (our lifetime).

The good news for all lottery players is that the lottery number patterns that you discover with your lottery software are not only valid, they are expected. So, the best lottery advice I can give you is to buy some good lottery software, study those lottery statistics and take advantage of those lottery number patterns. They will definitely be around for a while.