Are Lotteries Random Games of Chance? By Professor Dolph At Isnare.com Ezine Articles

You've no doubt heard the phrase, 'The lottery is a random game of chance.' But, what does this phrase really mean? Does it mean that everyone has the same chance of winning the lottery jackpot? Does it mean that there is no point in wasting your time or money on the lottery? Let’s analyze the phrase more closely to see if we can reduce any ambiguity.

First, the words 'game of chance' refers to the fact that probabilities are involved. People all over the world play games of chance every day. Professional gamblers do too, and are quite good at it. Professional gamblers are successful because they thoroughly understand the game they're playing and are experts at applying the laws of probability.

There are some who believe that the phrase 'game of chance' is simply code for 'you're going to lose'. But, professional gamblers know the truth. It really means opportunity. This is true for all games of chance, from Blackjack to Poker to horse racing and including the lottery. Yes, you can improve your chances of winning the lottery. But, if that is true, how could the lottery be random? Hmmm?

What Does Random Mean to You?

After doing this for over 20 years, I'm getting frustrated. But, I understand that it is my own fault. I just can't seem to find a good way to reprogram people's understanding of the word 'Random'. The problem is complicated by the fact that on the one hand, we have people throwing around the word 'Random' as if they actually knew what it meant. And, on the other hand, we have people listening to the word as if they understood what it meant. Neither group has it right. Words can be such a pain.

Shakespeare's cousin Vinny summed up my feelings about the word very well when he said, 'that which we call Random, by any other name would still smell.' Right on, Vinny.

But, for the umpteenth time, I'm going to try to bring some clarity to the debate. The definition of the word random is, 'a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.' A great definition except for the fact that it can never be realized in the real world! There's a good reason for that. Random is a theoretical concept bandied about in the mathematical ivory towers of academia that is being passed off as if it actually existed in reality. It is a charlatan. The word 'Random' is an ideal masquerading as reality.

The Lottery and Reality

If this definition could actually be implemented in the real world then:
* If you play Blackjack, it would be impossible for you to improve your chances of winning by card counting.
* If you play Poker, it would be impossible for you to decide how much to bet.
* If you play the Stock Market, it would be impossible for you to make any money.
It is pretty obvious that these conjectures are false.

You see, the word 'Random' doesn't fit very well in the real world because it is a theoretical mathematical tool. It is very uncomfortable like an awkward teenager in a social setting. It cannot be realized or achieved in any game, on Earth, in our Solar System, in our Galaxy nor the Universe because it is only at home in the theoretical world where it was born.

This should be intuitively obvious. How can anyone claim to be able to randomly select numbers from a finite list? They can't because, inevitably, shortly after the process begins, lottery patterns and trends begin to emerge. It can be said that after millions and millions of drawings, the occurrences of all lottery numbers will asymptotically approach the same number of hits but, in the short run, better known as our lifetime, lottery patterns and trends abound. They are there for everyone to see. Just look at your lottery. Any lottery. Why not be smart and take advantage of that fact when playing the lottery?

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